2026 FBS football rankings

October 29, 2026

statistical applications sports college football

Following up on our posts last year on a new approach to ranking college football teams, we provide our first rankings this season for the 138 FBS teams. We again considered only games played between FBS teams and not games against FCS teams. And we made one small adjustment to our methodology. In our final rankings last season, we weighted cells below the diagonal by the distance below the diagonal divided by the number of teams, we gave equal weight to all cells above the diagonal, and we assigned 20 percent of the weight to cells above the diagonal and 80 percent to cells below the diagonal. We noted last year that our results were not very sensitive to that weighting. In fact, the cells above the diagonal had little effect on the model. So, we decided it was preferable not to give them any weight.

So, in a ranking of ten teams, the cell weights are now as shown in the table below. Of course, most cells below the diagonal still have 0’s, because there are relatively few games where a lower ranked team in our model defeated a higher ranked team. Indeed, the model is simply trying to find the ranking that minimizes the penalty for those “upsets.”

0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
0.61	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1.21	0.61	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
1.82	1.21	0.61	0	0	0	0	0	0
2.42	1.82	1.21	0.61	0	0	0	0	0
3.03	2.42	1.82	1.21	0.61	0	0	0	0
3.64	3.03	2.42	1.82	1.21	0.61	0	0	0
4.24	3.64	3.03	2.42	1.82	1.21	0.61	0	0
4.85	4.24	3.64	3.03	2.42	1.82	1.21	0.61	0
5.45	4.85	4.24	3.64	3.03	2.42	1.82	1.21	0.61

We ran only the model that does not adjust for when the game occurred during the season, but that does adjust for the margin of victory and the game location, using codes designed so a win by 17 points or more is worth twice as much as a 1-point (or overtime) win, with an average bonus of 3 points for road victories. Following is our model’s ranking of the 138 FBS teams.

Rank	Team
1	Utah
2	Georgia
3	Alabama
4	Kentucky
5	Tennessee
6	Louisiana St.
7	Auburn
8	South Carolina
9	Florida
10	Mississippi
11	Texas
12	Missouri
13	Mississippi St.
14	Oklahoma
15	Ohio St.
16	Miami
17	Wake Forest
18	California Los Angeles
19	Indiana
20	Brigham Young
21	Notre Dame
22	Michigan
23	Iowa
24	Minnesota
25	Purdue
26	Washington
27	Wisconsin
28	Arizona
29	Cincinnati
30	Texas Tech
31	Houston
32	Iowa St.
33	West Virginia
34	Oklahoma St.
35	Southern California
36	Oregon
37	Illinois
38	Boise St.
39	New Mexico
40	Nebraska
41	Northwestern
42	Oregon St.
43	Penn St.
44	Texas San Antonio
45	Michigan St.
46	Central Florida
47	Louisville
48	Southern Methodist
49	Duke
50	North Carolina
51	Clemson
52	Texas Christian
53	Pittsburgh
54	Virginia Tech
55	Boston College
56	Stanford
57	Georgia Tech
58	Colorado
59	Baylor
60	Texas A&M
61	Louisiana Tech
62	Western Michigan
63	Toledo
64	Buffalo
65	Texas St.
66	Colorado St.
67	San Diego St.
68	James Madison
69	Florida St.
70	Virginia
71	Syracuse
72	California
73	Arkansas
74	Vanderbilt
75	North Carolina St.
76	North Texas
77	Arizona St.
78	Kansas St.
79	Kansas
80	Tulsa
81	Army
82	Tulane
83	Florida Atlantic
84	Memphis
85	Nevada Las Vegas
86	North Dakota St.
87	South Florida
88	Air Force
89	Navy
90	Florida International
91	Jacksonville St.
92	Middle Tennessee St.
93	Wyoming
94	Fresno St.
95	Nevada
96	Ohio
97	Central Michigan
98	South Alabama
99	Marshall
100	San Jose St.
101	Alabama Birmingham
102	Louisiana
103	Hawaii
104	Georgia Southern
105	Appalachian St.
106	Charlotte
107	Arkansas St.
108	Georgia St.
109	Liberty
110	Coastal Carolina
111	Delaware
112	Miami-Ohio
113	Temple
114	Connecticut
115	Maryland
116	Old Dominion
117	East Carolina
118	Eastern Michigan
119	Massachusetts
120	Rutgers
121	Bowling Green St.
122	Kent St.
123	Ball St.
124	New Mexico St.
125	Western Kentucky
126	Utah St.
127	Louisiana Monroe
128	Troy
129	Southern Mississippi
130	Missouri St.
131	Sam Houston St.
132	Kennesaw St.
133	Texas El Paso
134	Northern Illinois
135	Washington St.
136	Rice
137	Akron
138	Sacramento St.

As the discussion typically focuses on the teams at the top of the rankings, we provide a second table with the top 25 teams in our model and, for comparison, the 25 teams in the current AP rankings. Two general conclusions seem clear. First, our model loves the SEC, as 13 of its top 14 teams are from that conference. Second, our model is not as impressed with the Big Ten or the ACC or with Notre Dame.

Rank	Our Model	AP
1	Utah	Miami
2	Georgia	Ohio St.
3	Alabama	Georgia
4	Kentucky	Indiana
5	Tennessee	Notre Dame
6	Louisiana St.	Utah
7	Auburn	California Los Angeles
8	South Carolina	Brigham Young
9	Florida	Kentucky
10	Mississippi	Alabama
11	Texas	Texas
12	Missouri	Mississippi
13	Mississippi St.	Texas Tech
14	Oklahoma	Wake Forest
15	Ohio St.	Louisiana St.
16	Miami	Tennessee
17	Wake Forest	Florida
18	California Los Angeles	Houston
19	Indiana	Southern Methodist
20	Brigham Young	Boise St.
21	Notre Dame	Northwestern
22	Michigan	Arizona
23	Iowa	Missouri
24	Minnesota	Oklahoma St.
25	Purdue	Wisconsin

The challenge, of course, is that top teams in different conferences play very few games against each other during the regular season. The only nonconference games so far this season between the top 25 teams in our model were Texas’s win over Ohio St., Michigan’s win over Oklahoma, Brigham Young’s win over Notre Dame, Mississippi St.’s win over Minnesota, Wake Forest’s win over Purdue, and Notre Dame’s win over Purdue. Miami, which is ranked first by the AP, is only number 16 in our model because its best win is over Wake Forest and Wake Forest’s best win is over Purdue; neither Miami nor Wake Forest has shown it can beat a good SEC or Big Ten team or even a middle-of-the-pack SEC team. Similarly, Ohio St., which is ranked second by the AP, is ranked number 15 in our model because it lost to a middle-of-the-pack SEC team and because its best win is over Indiana, whose best win is over Michigan; again, neither Ohio St. nor Indiana (nor California Los Angeles) has shown it can beat a good or middle-of-the-pack SEC team. Similarly, neither Brigham Young nor Notre Dame has shown it can beat a good SEC or Big Ten team or even a middle-of-the-pack SEC team.

Our model is kinder to Utah, ranking it first even though it hasn’t defeated any of the other top 25 teams in our model. Indeed, Miami has a better win than Utah does, so it isn’t clear why Utah is ranked above the grouping of SEC teams and Ohio St., while Miami is ranked below those teams. The Utah/Brigham Young and Miami/Notre Dame games on November 7 should help clarify the rankings of those teams. It will be challenging for any Big Ten teams to overtake at least the top several SEC teams in our model during the regular season, because the top Big Ten teams have no significant nonconference games remaining. Ohio St.’s loss to Texas, in particular, weighs heavily on the Big Ten teams in our model; the Big Ten’s best hope may be for Oklahoma to improve its standing in the SEC so that Michigan’s win over Oklahoma has more influence on the highest ranked teams in our model.